Polymarket Up/Down resolution statistics
How often does each crypto Up/Down series actually resolve Up? Base rates with confidence intervals across 36,650 resolved markets, computed from PolyTest’s archive and recomputed daily.
Read this before trading it. A base rate is public information — whatever skew exists is in the opening quote before you can act on it. Every series below is statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip. Real edges come from microstructure — spread, depth and order flow — which is what the underlying snapshots are for.
| Series | Markets | Up rate | 95% interval | Verdict | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin 5-minute btc-updown-5m | 8,515 | 49.95% | 48.9–51.0% | Coin flip | Detail |
| Bitcoin 15-minute btc-updown-15m | 2,840 | 50.25% | 48.4–52.1% | Coin flip | Detail |
| Bitcoin 1-hour btc-updown-1hr | 731 | 51.44% | 47.8–55.0% | Coin flip | Detail |
| Bitcoin 4-hour btc-updown-4hr | 178 | 53.93% | 46.6–61.1% | Coin flip | Detail |
| Bitcoin 24-hour btc-updown-24hr | 29 | 55.17% | 37.5–71.6% | Coin flip | Detail |
| Ethereum 5-minute eth-updown-5m | 8,550 | 49.95% | 48.9–51.0% | Coin flip | Detail |
| Ethereum 15-minute eth-updown-15m | 2,874 | 50.56% | 48.7–52.4% | Coin flip | Detail |
| Ethereum 1-hour eth-updown-1hr | 734 | 51.50% | 47.9–55.1% | Coin flip | Detail |
| Solana 5-minute sol-updown-5m | 8,577 | 49.98% | 48.9–51.0% | Coin flip | Detail |
| Solana 15-minute sol-updown-15m | 2,887 | 49.88% | 48.1–51.7% | Coin flip | Detail |
| Solana 1-hour sol-updown-1hr | 735 | 51.84% | 48.2–55.4% | Coin flip | Detail |
Coverage begins Aug 5, 2026. Only markets with a recorded resolution are counted. Intervals are Wilson score at 95%.
Outcomes are the answer. The book is the question.
These pages show which side won. Testing whether a strategy would have made money needs the order book at every moment in between — which Polymarket deletes on resolution and PolyTest keeps.