Polymarket Up/Down resolution statistics
How often does each crypto Up/Down series actually resolve Up? Base rates with confidence intervals across 34,510 resolved markets, computed from PolyTest’s archive.
Looking for one specific market? Paste its slug — for example btc-updown-5m-1780949100 — to get that market’s window, outcome and volume.
Read this before trading it. A base rate is public information — whatever skew exists is in the opening quote before you can act on it. Every series below is statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip. Real edges come from microstructure — spread, depth and order flow — which is what the underlying snapshots are for.
Bitcoin 5-minute
btc-updown-5m
50.28%
- Markets
- 8,838
- 95% interval
- 49.2–51.3%
- Verdict
- Coin flip
Bitcoin 15-minute
btc-updown-15m
49.90%
- Markets
- 2,946
- 95% interval
- 48.1–51.7%
- Verdict
- Coin flip
Bitcoin 1-hour
btc-updown-1hr
50.27%
- Markets
- 738
- 95% interval
- 46.7–53.9%
- Verdict
- Coin flip
Bitcoin 4-hour
btc-updown-4hr
54.10%
- Markets
- 183
- 95% interval
- 46.9–61.2%
- Verdict
- Coin flip
Bitcoin 24-hour
btc-updown-24hr
56.67%
- Markets
- 30
- 95% interval
- 39.2–72.6%
- Verdict
- Coin flip
Ethereum 5-minute
eth-updown-5m
49.46%
- Markets
- 6,519
- 95% interval
- 48.2–50.7%
- Verdict
- Coin flip
Ethereum 15-minute
eth-updown-15m
50.25%
- Markets
- 2,171
- 95% interval
- 48.2–52.4%
- Verdict
- Coin flip
Ethereum 1-hour
eth-updown-1hr
49.72%
- Markets
- 545
- 95% interval
- 45.5–53.9%
- Verdict
- Coin flip
Solana 5-minute
sol-updown-5m
49.28%
- Markets
- 8,851
- 95% interval
- 48.2–50.3%
- Verdict
- Coin flip
Solana 15-minute
sol-updown-15m
50.37%
- Markets
- 2,950
- 95% interval
- 48.6–52.2%
- Verdict
- Coin flip
Solana 1-hour
sol-updown-1hr
50.34%
- Markets
- 739
- 95% interval
- 46.7–53.9%
- Verdict
- Coin flip
Coverage begins Sep 6, 2026. Only markets with a recorded resolution are counted. Intervals are Wilson score at 95%.
Outcomes are the answer. The book is the question.
These pages show which side won. Testing whether a strategy would have made money needs the order book at every moment in between — which Polymarket stops serving on resolution and PolyTest keeps.